While only the National leader Christopher Luxon has said he would form a government with NZ First – if he had to, Luxon said in September – he cannot expect an easy coronation from Peters, if the NZ First leader has the choice. Nobody knows that better than his opponents. After entering parliament as a National lawmaker in 1978 – then leaving after disagreements to form his own party – Peters’ rhetorical flair, florid insults, and exhortations to “common sense” have long been his hallmarks. While he has drawn from the zeitgeist for this year’s offering – including anti-transgender policies – Peters is not a product of the past decade’s wave of global populism. NZ First’s platform includes at times discordant economic pledges from across the political spectrum, promises to reduce immigration and retain the ban on foreigners buying houses, and conservative social initiatives. His ideological position is not simply defined. Instead, the beneficiaries have been minor parties and above all, Peters, with a canny knack for presenting himself – after more than four decades in politics – as an outsider. But the decisive rightwing lead has narrowed. Amid a cost of living crisis, ruling Labour has slumped in favour, with public dissatisfaction and a mood for change expected, for months, to favour National.

On Wednesday, the latest Guardian Essential survey, in which NZ First recorded 8.2% of the vote, was the latest to suggest that neither the right nor left blocs in parliament could govern without Peters. The major parties have warned of “chaos” or even a fresh vote if Peters wields such influence again in perhaps a sign of the electorate’s lack of enthusiasm for National and Labour, NZ First’s share of the vote has lifted with each opinion poll.

Peters has styled himself as a handbrake on governments, frustrating the enactment of what he deems the “neoliberal” or “woke” planks of their agendas while extracting his own policy concessions and ministerial portfolios. Before being ejected from parliament in 2020 with a dismal election result, NZ First has three times before held the balance of power after elections, twice propelling Labour into government, and once choosing National.

Unreal numbers